martes, 28 de junio de 2016

Why didn't Unidos Podemos do better?



As a follow-up to the article in Spanish about the UK referendum, I've decided to do something similar on the Spanish election and really nail my colours to the mast! 

I should say firstly that I don't imagine there will be too many English-speaking people interested in Spanish politics. Secondly, though I feel I know enough to explain why people voted "Leave" in the UK, I find it harder to explain the Spanish result:

Anyhow, to answer your question (you know who you are), Podemos joined forces with United Left, a party I've sympathised with for years (Spanish Communist Party, Ecologists and various leftish organisations), and who have a leader less prone to saying the right thing at the wrong time than Podemos'. The basic problem Podemos have in my view is that they are too inexperienced, though their youth appeals to the younger voter.

Anyway, they obtained exactly the same number of seats together as they had separately at the last election in December, which is a drop in votes, as together they should have secured more seats based on how the Spanish PR system works.

Why did this happen?

I have heard reactions from people I know, and they sounded relieved Podemos didn't win,  as they are obviously not left-wing at heart, and think an elected Podemos would alter the whole system - though of course this is what needs to be done!!

However, this explains why non-left (though not necessarily pro-Popular Party) voters, who probably never voted for them before anyway, are relieved, not why Podemos actually lost votes. This is more difficult to ascertain, though from speaking to fellow left-wing sympathisers, I think it's mainly because they are perceived to have missed the chance to pact with the PSOE (a kind of Blairite Labour party) after the previous election, and appeared to be greedy for certain positions in a future government. 

For me, the big problem they have is that a large proportion of their seats are made up of leftist Catalan and Valencian pro-independence factions who are in alliance with them in return for their support on a future referendum (Ahem!). This was obviously the major sticking point in negotiations with the PSOE, who are anti-referendum. Of course, at some point in the future Podemos will have to drop links with these groups since if they were successful, they'd no longer be taking part in a Spanish election anyway!! A pretty difficult situation for Podemos, as you will appreciate. The right-wing media clearly did their bit on this and other areas too.

That helps to explain Podemos' stagnating I think, but what is pretty hard to fathom is how 33% of people continue to support the PP, a ruling party that has had so many corruption scandals, it should now be clear to everybody that a vote for them is basically a vote for someone who is going to steal your money. Incidentally, the PSOE are not much better on that score both on a national and local level. 

The only explanation I can come up with is that there are lots of Spanish people out there, who, 40 years into "democracy", still assume all politicians are on the take, and that they would do the same if they had the chance. One of the first things I noticed when I came to live here is that many many people find it strange someone would not want to fiddle their taxes. How they think public health and education would be paid for is anyone's guess... To adapt a Spanish saying: "Better the thief you know, than the one you don't". 

By the way, the Popular Party's vote actually went up, as a result of faithful right-wing voting patterns and also the transfer of votes from Ciudadanos, a new party that seems to have been set up to counter Podemos, with a view to attracting younger voters from the right and  the middle ground who couldn't stomach the sleaze in the PP. As soon as the December elections had taken place, the leader of this party was calling for an alliance with the PP, albeit without Mariano Rajoy as leader,  which kind of gave the game away.

Anyway, the future looks just as rosy here in Spain as it does in the UK...

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